Idaho could see more than $100 million worth of medical marijuana sold on an annual basis and up to $28 million in new yearly revenue for state coffers under a legalization measure that activists are working to qualify for the November ballot, according to a new economic analysis released by the campaign.
The Natural Medicine Alliance of Idaho (NMAI), which last week announced that it’s collected enough signatures for a medical cannabis legalization initiative to exceed the statewide threshold for ballot qualification, commissioned the firm Younger Associates to run two fiscal projections for the proposal, using Utah’s medical marijuana program as a model.
“Under a Utah-comparable participation trajectory, Idaho could support approximately 63,000 active patients and $108.5 million in annual retail sales by Year 6,” the analysis says.
Under the first revenue scenario, the state’s existing 6 percent state sales tax would be applied to marijuana sales and there would also be a $100 annual patient registration fee, which is projected to net about $6.5 million in annual sales tax revenue and $6.3 million in annual patient card fees by the program’s sixth year.
The second revenue scenario includes the same patient registration cost and sales tax, but also adds an additional 14 percent fee assessed at the point of sale. The would generate about $21.7 million in annual tax and fee revenue, in addition to the roughly $6.3 million in yearly patient card fees, for a total haul for the state of $28 million a year.
“Actual revenues will ultimately depend on final program design and implementation decisions adopted by the State,” the report says.
In addition to the economic analysis, NMAI also released a new short video this month that argues the measure “proposes tightly regulated market access” for cannabis and treats patients “with dignity rather than fear or stigma.”
The video also frames medical marijuana as an “alternative to the devastating consequences of opioids” and says the initiative “supports local jobs, Idaho agriculture and generates tax revenue while maintaining robust enforcement standards to prevent misuse.”
“This is not about recreation. It’s about care,” it says. “The Act provides for medical freedom for patients to consult with their doctor regarding their medical conditions and assert their individual right to make choices for their care.”
But because it’s unclear how many signatures the campaign has collected to far are valid and whether activists have met a separate requirement for regional distribution of petitions, NMAI is continuing to hold signature gathering events across the state to widen their coalition of supporters in the run-up to the May 1 submission deadline.
Amanda Watson, NMAI’s communications lead, told Marijuana Moment on Wednesday organizers “feel very confident we will qualify for the ballot in November.”
As of this week, NMAI has collected more than 73,000 signatures total—exceeding the 70,725 statewide requirement for valid petitions—according to the campaign’s website.
To be certified for the ballot, the team also needs to submit signatures from 6 percent of registered voters from at least 18 of the state’s 35 legislative districts. Marijuana Moment reached out to NMAI for a status update about their progress to that end, but a representative was not immediately available.
Meanwhile, teams of paid and volunteer petitioners are being deployed throughout the state to target high-traffic areas to gather signatures, and NMAI’s website features a map showing where registered voters can go to sign.
The Idaho Medical Cannabis Act, which NMAI unveiled last October, would provide patients with qualifying conditions access to marijuana from a limited number of dispensaries and provide a regulatory framework for the market.
Here are the main provisions of the Idaho Medical Cannabis Act:
- Health practitioners would be able to recommend medical cannabis to patients with conditions that include, but are not limited to, cancer, anxiety and acute pain.
- Medical marijuana patients or their designated caregiver could purchase up to 113 grams of smokeable cannabis, or 20 grams of THC extract for vaping, per month.
- The state would be start by issuing three vertically integrated cannabis business licenses, after which point it could license up to six total.
- Marijuana would be reclassified under state law as a Schedule II, rather than Schedule I, controlled substance.
- State and local law enforcement would be barred from assisting in federal drug enforcement activities related to the state-legal cannabis program.
- There would be anti-discrimination protections for those who use or sell marijuana in compliance from state law, preventing adverse actions by employers, landlords and educational institutions.
- It does not appear that there would be any equity-centered reforms, nor would the initiative provide for a home grow option.
“We believe Idahoans deserve access to legal, compassionate, natural care right here at home,” NMAI’s website says. “Our mission is to give patients a legal pathway to natural medicine that can ease suffering and restore dignity without the fear of addiction.”
“The Idaho Medical Cannabis Act is our first step forward. It creates a safe, tightly regulated medical program that allows qualified Idahoans to seek medical cannabis treatment with a valid diagnosis from a healthcare provider,” it says. “It supports Idaho agriculture, generates tax revenue to reinvest locally, and ensures that patients can find natural relief.”
The campaign last month also released the results of a statewide poll showing that 83 percent of likely voters back medical cannabis legalization, including 74 percent of Republicans, 95 percent of Democrats and 92 percent of independents.
Asked how they would vote if the current medical cannabis legalization does appear on the November ballot, 76 percent of respondents said “yes.” Of that cohort, 50 percent said they would “definitively” vote yes, and just 21 percent said they’d vote “no.”
After the medical cannabis initiative was unveiled last year, a separate campaign that launched in 2024, Kind Idaho, told supporters that it would be suspending its own signature gathering for a ballot initiative to legalize the personal possession and cultivation of marijuana by adults.
Kind Idaho previously introduced medical marijuana ballot measures intended to go before voters in both the 2022 and 2024 elections, but the efforts proved unsuccessful.
Meanwhile, voters this year will see a different kind of proposal on the ballot: A constitutional amendment that the legislature approved to make it so only lawmakers could legalize marijuana or other controlled substances.
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Legislators separately held a hearing last March to discuss a bill to enact medical cannabis legalization legislatively, but there hasn’t been meaningful action on the issue in the months since.
Separately, a bill from Rep. Bruce Skaug (R) last year would have set a $420 mandatory minimum fine for cannabis possession, removing judges’ discretion to apply lower penalties. Skaug said the bill, which ultimately stalled in committee, would send the message that Idaho is tough on marijuana.
House lawmakers also passed a bill to ban marijuana advertisements, though the Senate later defeated the measure.
Photo courtesy of Max Pixel.
